On Tuesday February 25, Nvidia will report its fourth quarter fiscal 2026 results, and all of Wall Street is holding its breath. Analyst consensus expects $65.55 billion in quarterly revenue, though Goldman Sachs believes the actual figure will beat that mark by nearly $2 billion.
Why Nvidia earnings move the entire market
Nvidia is not just another company. With a market cap exceeding $2 trillion, it is the most influential stock in the S&P 500. When Nvidia reports, the entire market reacts: index funds, ETFs, retirement portfolios, and even cryptocurrencies are affected.
If you have money in an S&P 500 tracking fund (like VOO or SPY), you have significant Nvidia exposure. Its results directly impact the value of your investment.
What Wall Street expects
Expectations are sky-high:
- Q4 revenue: $65.55 billion (Goldman Sachs bets on $67.5B)
- Full fiscal 2026 EPS: $4.69 per share
- Q1 fiscal 2027 guidance: analysts expect $70.7 billion in revenue
- Current price: $187.90 with consensus target of $264.20 (+40% upside)
CFO Colette Kress said earlier this year that demand continues to grow and AI product revenue will exceed the originally forecast $500 billion.
Nvidia's earnings track record
Nvidia has beaten Wall Street expectations in 20 of the last 22 quarters. However, there is a curious fact: the stock fell after 3 of the last 4 earnings reports, even when numbers were strong.
This happens because expectations are so inflated that "beating by a little" is not enough. The market needs Nvidia to not just meet but crush estimates.
What to watch on Tuesday the 25th
Analysts will focus on three key points:
- Q1 2027 guidance: more important than past results, the market wants to know if AI chip demand keeps accelerating
- Gross margins: can Nvidia maintain its 70%+ margins as competition from AMD and custom solutions from Google/Amazon increases?
- Tariff impact: with Trump's new 15% global tariff, how does it affect Nvidia's supply chain?
How to prepare as an investor
If you already own Nvidia stock, don't panic if the stock drops after earnings. It has happened before even with excellent results. What matters is the long-term trend in AI demand.
If you are thinking of buying, many analysts suggest not buying right before earnings due to volatility. Waiting until the next day may give you a better price regardless of the outcome.
For more conservative investors, Nvidia exposure through ETFs like QQQ or VOO offers diversification without the concentrated risk of a single stock.
