Wednesday, February 25 is the day Wall Street has been waiting for. Nvidia reports its fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results after market close, around 4:30 PM Eastern Time, and the event is set to shake markets in the hours ahead.
What is Wall Street expecting?
Analyst expectations are sky-high. The consensus points to earnings per share of $1.53, a 72% jump year over year, and revenue of $65.7 billion, a 67% surge year over year. The Data Center segment is expected to be the star, driven by surging AI chip demand.
Nvidia has beaten estimates for 12 consecutive quarters. Wall Street quite literally expects the company to beat expectations once again.
Why this report moves the entire market
Nvidia is not just a company. It is the thermometer of the artificial intelligence economy. Its H100 chip and now the Blackwell powers the data centers of Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta. When Nvidia wins, markets interpret it as confirmation that AI investment is running at full speed.
That is why the S&P 500 is already up 0.3% today ahead of the results, with the Nasdaq leading gains at +0.44%. The so-called Magnificent Seven stocks are driving the advance.
Options markets are pricing a 6% to 6.3% move in Nvidia shares following the report.
How this affects you even if you do not own Nvidia
Even without holding Nvidia shares directly, you may still be exposed through S&P 500 index funds like VOO or SPY, where Nvidia carries one of the largest weightings. Tech ETFs like QQQ or XLK have even more concentrated exposure. Retirement accounts with global equity allocations are also affected.
A 6% move in Nvidia can add or subtract meaningful points to your portfolio overnight.
What to watch in tonight earnings call
More than the headline numbers, investors will focus on three things. First, the Q1 FY2027 guidance: are orders staying strong, or are there signs of a slowdown? Second, DeepSeek and Chinese competition: the low-cost AI model raised questions about whether chip demand will keep growing at the same pace. Third, gross margins: expected above 73%. Any compression would be a red flag.
What to do with your investments tonight
If you already hold Nvidia stock or tech ETFs, experts recommend avoiding impulsive decisions in the hours after the report because after-hours moves can reverse sharply by the next morning. Wait until the following day to assess how the broader market digests the news. Review your diversification if Nvidia already exceeds 10% of your portfolio.
If you do not hold a position and are thinking of buying, remember: buying right before earnings is speculation, not investing.
Market context heading into the report
Markets arrive at this report in recovery mode. The S&P 500 had dropped more than 3% last week after the DeepSeek AI model raised fears about future chip demand. Today rebound reflects investor confidence that Nvidia will demonstrate AI chip demand remains insatiable.
The earnings conference call begins at 5:00 PM ET, and futures market reactions will be immediate.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute personalized financial advice. Investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the reader.
